Bitcoin traders in profit remain cautious as market digests Ripple ruling

Bitcoin’s realized price just above $20,000 suggests market participants remain firmly in profit despite regulatory uncertainty

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Price action for the world’s largest crypto asset has so far led to a modest increase in new demand inflow this year as speculation over digital asset regulation churns.

Over the past four weeks, while bitcoin has been range bound between about $29,500 and $31,500, inflows of dollars into crypto-related funds have hit a two-year high at $742 million, according to CoinShares.

To date, the realized price for bitcoin (BTC) rests around $20,430 compared to a market price of $30,000 suggesting market participants remain firmly in profit, data shows.

The Bitcoin Realized Price reflects the cumulative worth of all bitcoin, determined by the price at which they were acquired, divided by the overall number in circulation.

Essentially, if the market price of BTC exceeds its realized price, it typically signifies aggregate profitability for market participants. Conversely, when the market price falls below the realized price, it generally indicates a collective notional loss.

It comes as the number of unique addresses holding at least 1 BTC continues to rise steadily, indicating a willingness to hold the asset among that specific cohort despite regulatory uncertainty following last week’s events.

The Realized Cap, different from realized price, currently hovers just below the $400 billion mark, indicating a consistent influx of capital into the asset throughout the course of 2023, Glassnode wrote in a recent research note.

“Despite BTC setting a temporary yearly price high of $31,700, the market remains extremely quiet,” Glassnode said. Though, the blockchain analytics firm noted, “the market is firmly within a regime of profit dominance.”

While the ruling in the case of Ripple v. SEC was initially perceived as bullish among market participants, given “programmatic” XRP sales were deemed not as securities on secondary markets, the New York court also left some open questions.

Despite rising to fresh highs this year, bitcoin has failed to sustain any further breakouts while the market begins digesting the second half of the Ripple ruling: Institutional sales of XRP, according to the New York judge presiding over the case, are securities transactions.

Open interest for BTC futures contracts remains elevated and has continued to post consistent figures above $4 billion for the past three weeks, Coinglass data shows.


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With the recent election, it’s clear that there will be a meaningful shift in crypto regulations and legislation. Trump is likely as pro-crypto as a president can be. He launched (multiple) of his own NFT collections and is launching an Aave wrapper called World Liberty Fi. He has also spoken out and mentioned that he wants to make the United States "the crypto capital of the planet" and transform it into the "Bitcoin superpower of the world". He proposed creating a strategic national Bitcoin stockpile alongside support from Senator Cynthia Lummis, promising to retain 100% of all Bitcoin held by the U.S. government. More importantly, we’re likely to see deregulation across the board in a lot of industries, with crypto being one of them - as Trump has committed to keeping the crypto market largely unregulated. Crypto, DeFi in particular, has historically been knee-capped by overreaching and hostile governmental agencies and regulation by enforcement, as evidenced by the plethora of Wells notices and lawsuits over the past few years. With Donald Trump winning the presidency, Republicans taking control of the Senate, and being on the verge of securing the House, we think it’s likely that crypto realizes positive regulatory clarity. Below, you can find our analysts’ takes:

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