US users missed out on $2.6B in potential airdrop revenue: Dragonfly

A new report from Dragonfly suggests that US users were geoblocked from billions in potential revenue

article-image

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi | Permissionless I by Blockworks

share

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


$1.9 to $2.64 billion. 

That’s the amount of potential revenue that Dragonfly thinks US users have missed out on thanks to geoblocking. 

Okay, really, it’s more because of the regulatory environment — or should I say former environment. 

“As of 2024, we estimate that 22-24% of all active crypto addresses worldwide belonged to US residents. Our sample of 11 projects generated a total value of approximately $7.16 billion to date, during which approximately 1.9 million claimers participated worldwide with an average median claim value of around $4.6 thousand per eligible address,” Dragonfly wrote.

As we’re all aware, projects have had to protect themselves by excluding US users from the party. Sad. 

If we want to look outside the box, it’s not just crypto folks who have lost out on potential bags. 

Source: Dragonfly

“The federal tax revenue loss from these geoblocked airdrops ranges between $418 million and $1.1 billion, with an additional $107 million to $284 million in state tax revenue foregone,” Dragonfly wrote. “These figures do not account for further tax revenue that could have been generated from the capital gains taxes upon the eventual sale of these tokens.”

Oof. 

Unless you’re a total contrarian — or anti-crypto — the consensus is that the last couple of years have not given us the regulatory clarity that crypto needs to survive and thrive. 

Clearly, the data points to that. It also begs the question: Wen regulatory clarity on airdrops? 

Right now, that’s not clear, though Dragonfly used its study to present a case that argues airdropped tokens aren’t securities under the Howey test.

As for recommendations, the report suggests that non-fundraising airdrops include a safe harbor that would protect them. This harbor would include issuer disclosures, insider lock-up, consideration, functional platform and token post-launch and, finally, strict rules to target manipulation. 

A safe harbor could be grandfathered into previous airdrops, too. Bonus points if the projects have to hand over data that demonstrates they’ve complied with the standards set forth. 

I know we have a lot going on when it comes to trying to figure things out from a regulatory perspective at the moment. But clarifying and protecting both the firms behind airdrops and their users could give crypto a much-needed boost. Just saying.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

  • Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
  • Empire: Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto.
  • Forward Guidance: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.
  • 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.
  • Lightspeed: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks.
  • The Drop: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.
Tags

Upcoming Events

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates (5).png

Research

Outside of stablecoins, the value of tokenized assets sits below $20B, dominated by the following asset classes: private credit, US Treasuries, commodities, institutional alternative funds, stocks, non-US government debt, and corporate bonds. In the coming months, we see the greatest opportunities in the tokenization of illiquid markets, particularly private equity. However, the successful integration of offchain assets into blockchain ecosystems relies heavily on clear and consistent regulatory frameworks, with purpose-built infrastructure to support it.

article-image

“Every asset manager and bank doing ‘crypto’ is earning insane fees for putting things ‘onchain,'” read a slide from Meltem Demiror’s DAS talk

article-image

The move from the national bank regulator came after increased pressure from Republicans

article-image

Industry leaders at DAS sounded off on the SEC’s approval of solana futures ETFs and how the crypto industry could expand into futures products

article-image

The decentralized-storage alternative to AWS or IPFS will launch its mainnet March 27

article-image

Bitcoin ETF outflows are leveling off, Ethereum’s price action is increasingly sentiment-driven, and TradFi’s role in crypto is expanding

article-image

The MicroStrategy founder understood digital scarcity long before Bitcoin, and it’s a story of bubbles, brokers and a “monster bull run.”