BTC resilience tested as volatility persists

BTC’s price went down, but institutions were buying the dip at “astounding” levels

article-image

Lekker Capital founder and Forward Guidance contributor Quinn Thompson | DAS 2025 New York by Mike Lawrence for Blockworks

share

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


It seems the market was acting up while I was out of office Thursday and Friday. It hasn’t stopped, either.

Several industry watchers called out BTC’s resilience at the end of last week (compared to US equities, for example) following Trump’s tariff reveal. 

Then the asset’s price plummeted.  

While BTC price stood around $83,000 Friday, Forward Guidance podcast guest Tony Greer called corporate bitcoin buying at every price level “astounding.” He also noted institutions’ ongoing willingness to buy the dip and their apparent long-term belief in the asset.

Though Strategy paused its BTC buying last week, the company bought 22,048 BTC at an average price of ~$87,000 per coin the week prior. GameStop recently closed a $1.3 billion private offering of convertible senior notes; a portion of the net proceeds may go toward buying bitcoin.  

Net outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs have stayed rather modest since peaking at $1.1 billion on Feb. 25. Roughly $165 million left those products last week, Farside Investors data shows.  

Still, Forward Guidance’s Quinn Thompson noted: “It feels to me like if this broader risk meltdown drags too far too long, it’s eventually got to puke, I think.”

Loading Tweet..

Let’s fast forward from that Friday conversation, as BTC’s price dropped substantially over the weekend — dipping below $75,000. It whipsawed with equities Monday morning and hovered around $78,500 at 1:30 pm ET.

David Hernandez, a crypto investment specialist at 21Shares, noted that BTC not always capitulating in line with other risk assets highlights its divergence from traditional markets. 

“Bitcoin’s behavior [over] the last several days reflects its developing investment thesis as a store of value asset, one that could provide uncorrelated sources of return during moments of macroeconomic uncertainty,” Hernandez told me.

Now, markets eagerly search for any indication that Trump might pause or reverse tariffs ahead of Wednesday. Bitcoin cannot be tariffed, Hernandez added, “offering a potential flight to safety as other assets buckle.”  

LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger argued that the current price levels present a compelling accumulation opportunity, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. 

When evaluating where a “higher low” might emerge for equities and bitcoin, Kruger noted two “resistance-turned-support” levels: the S&P’s 2022 high around 4,800, as well as the $74,000 mark for BTC.

“The weekend’s market turmoil has finally brought these critical zones into play,” he added. “We’re now looking at medium- and long-term levels that should strongly appeal to both US equity and bitcoin investors.” 

Hernandez views $72,000 (the breakout start point following the election) as a key support level to watch. Looking ahead, he points to expected Fed rate cuts serving as a tailwind for risk assets — with sidelined capital possibly returning to equities, credit and crypto as borrowing costs fall.  

The probability of a 25bps cut next month sat at 36% mid-day Monday, according to CME Group data

Hernandez added that BTC could see moderate single-digit percentage bumps from the rate cuts that could help it get back to six figures later this year.

Longer term, he told me, a global trade war could spur countries fighting for currency dominance to gravitate toward BTC, given its neutrality and global liquidity.

There’ll be plenty more ebbs and flows before this story’s done.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

  • Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
  • Empire: Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto.
  • Forward Guidance: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.
  • 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.
  • Lightspeed: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks.
  • The Drop: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.
  • Supply Shock: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.
Tags

Upcoming Events

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

morpho 2 graphic.png

Research

Utilizing a ‘DeFi Mullet’ approach, Coinbase’s Bitcoin-backed loans integration with Morpho demonstrates a powerful blueprint for CEXs to monetize dormant assets by expanding adoption of wrapped products (cbBTC, USDC) while also supporting native and/or preferred DeFi ecosystems (Base) which can further lead to downstream growth in onchain liquidity and increased utilization of the related assets.

article-image

The S&P 500 quickly erased gains spurred by optimism that President Trump may push back the start date for his new tariff policies

article-image

A new report from Centrifuge and Keyrock sets out the bull, bear and base cases for tokenized private credit and RWAs.

article-image

Exploring theories behind April 5, Satoshi’s cryptic “birth date” – and potential clues about his real age

article-image

The cell provider is offloading data to XNET’s Wi-Fi network

article-image

While overall VC spending is on the rise, web3 gaming’s being left in the dust

article-image

Tariff and interest rate concerns overshadowed a positive March jobs report