(Almost) end-of-year price update, outlook
Some were eyeing the $125,000 level for BTC at the end of 2024, while others did warn of a pullback
manabanana/Shutterstock and Adobe modified by Blockworks
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
There was no shortage of crypto price predictions this year, particularly (it seemed) in November and December after the election. Some had been eyeing the $125,000 level for BTC at the end of 2024, while others did warn of a pullback.
Where we stood at 2:10 pm ET Monday: BTC at ~$94,300 and ETH at ~$3,400.
Bitcoin has dropped roughly 12% since rising above $108,000 on Dec. 17. Ether was trading higher than the $4,000 mark that day, but has fallen 15% since.
21Shares research strategist Matt Mena attributed this in part to the more hawkish vibes from the Fed heading into 2025. The forecast of two rate cuts next year (instead of three) “dampened market sentiment and is a key factor behind the recent downturn in prices for BTC, ETH and other risk assets,” he argued.
Mena also noted that the six-month high in the 10-year Treasury yield further diminishes the appeal of crypto assets, as investors shift toward safer and more predictable returns.
Then there’re those who are locking in gains realized over the year, Mena said. At the same time, others are employing tax-loss harvesting strategies — selling assets that have declined in value to offset capital gains and reduce taxable income.
He and other analysts have called this a “healthy” correction, typical for bitcoin after a significant run-up. If BTC can stay above $85,000, the 21Shares exec told me he thinks it will sustain the uptrend seen in recent months. Otherwise, we could see accelerated selling and further price declines.
“The next major psychological price level to watch is $110,000,” Mena added. “Once bitcoin breaks through this resistance, we could see a swift surge to $120,000, with the potential to target $150,000 by the summer as momentum builds.”
Sergei Gorev, head of risk at YouHodler, predicts the corrective sentiment in the crypto market to persist into 2025. He cited the historical correlation between BTC and the declining M2 money supply as a key factor.
But Galaxy’s Alex Thorn wrote in a Friday research note that he expects BTC to ultimately reach 20% of gold’s market capitalization in 2025 (it’s currently slightly more than 10%).
Thorn thinks BTC will cross $150,000 in the year’s first half — as well as a “test or best” of $185,000 in Q4.“A combination of institutional, corporate and nation state adoption will propel bitcoin to new heights in 2025,” the Galaxy research head wrote. “Throughout its existence, bitcoin has appreciated faster than all other asset classes, particularly the S&P 500 and gold, and that trend will continue in 2025.”
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
- Empire: Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto.
- Forward Guidance: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.
- 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.
- Lightspeed: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks.
- The Drop: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.
