GDP estimates boost hopes for a soft landing 

Markets are, unsurprisingly, still all but certain (96% sure) the Fed will opt for another 25bps interest rate cut next month

article-image

Strannik_fox/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


Gross domestic product came in marginally softer than expected for the third quarter of 2024, but the pace of growth still indicates that a soft landing is within reach — or, according to some analysts, already here. 

GDP in the third quarter rose at a 2.8% annualized pace, according to advanced estimates, coming in just below expectations of 3%. The figure was boosted by strong consumer and government spending. Personal consumption increased to 3.7% during Q3, marking it the strongest quarter since the beginning of 2023.  

Quarterly personal consumption expenditures index increased 1.5% annually vs. 2.5% during the second quarter. The monthly PCE index for September is scheduled to be published tomorrow. 

Today’s GDP reading comes after the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model lowered its third quarter estimate from 3.3% to 2.8% Tuesday. 

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, called Wednesday’s figures “soft landing numbers.” 

James Bullard, former president of the St. Louis Fed, told CNN earlier this month he thought we should already “declare a soft landing.” 

I’ll hold off on making any declarations for now. Tomorrow’s PCE numbers and Friday’s US employment report are going to be very telling. Plus, the JOLTS data we got yesterday doesn’t paint the prettiest picture. 

The JOLTS report showed that US job openings in September fell to the lowest point since the beginning of 2021. Available positions also declined to 7.44 million from 7.89 million in August, missing economists’ expectations of 8 million. 

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said the report “was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis by itself, but it was a step in that direction as investors will want to start seeing the decline in headline job openings slow as part of a soft landing dynamic and still-healthy labor market.”

Like I said, the September jobs report is going to be key. 

Markets are, unsurprisingly, still all but certain (96% sure) the Fed will opt for another 25-basis point interest rate cut next month, according to data from CME Group.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates (2).png

Research

We’re bullish on the PUMP token. We believe Pump.fun's brand strength, existing integrations, product roadmap, and strategic levers justify PUMP's TGE valuation, and expect the token to re-rate meaningfully higher in the months ahead.

article-image

The acquisition is Pump.fun’s first, and comes just days before its planned ICO

article-image

As Trump’s tariff war reignites, everyone is assuming the dollar will continue its path lower. But the journey might be bumpy

article-image

A valuation model for “blockchain GDP”

article-image

The mini app combines vibe-coding with a hypercasual game feed and is coming to the new Coinbase Wallet

article-image

An improbable tale of the world’s 40th graphics-chip startup

article-image

The newly announced token will debut in an ICO on Saturday