For the US labor market, June data was mixed

The ADP’s print and the Department of Labor’s report show different pictures, and use different metrics

July 4, 2025 03:30 pm

Mark Van Scyoc/Shutterstock and Adobe modified by Blockworks

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It may have been a short trading week, but on the economic data front, things have been very busy.

The US labor market was in full focus, first with the ADP’s print on Wednesday and then the Department of Labor’s report on Thursday.

Here’s a recap:

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June ADP report shows private-sector payroll decrease

The June ADP employment report came in remarkably lower than projections. Analysts expected the private sector to add 100,000 positions, but in reality, payrolls decreased by 33,000, according to ADP.

It’s the first negative print since March 2023, although the figure has declined every month since March 2025. Take this with a grain of salt, though. A government employment report painted a different picture (more on that later).

Jobless claims lower than expected

Initial jobless claims for the week ended June 28 came in lower, at 233,000. This compares 240,000 expected and 237,000 the week prior. It’s the softest reading in six weeks, but the figure still remains elevated compared to this time last year.

Summer is typically volatile for unemployment figures, so keep that in mind for the coming weeks.

BLS employment report shows payroll growth

The Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics June employment report showed public and private payrolls grew by 147,000, outpacing expectations (~110,000). This comes in line with the 12‑month average (~146,000), while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% as participation fell slightly.

Sectors that saw the most growth were state/local government (+73,000) and healthcare (+39,000). Private‑sector hiring slowed, coming in at 74,000 — its weakest since October.

This is, of course, much higher than the figure reported by ADP, but it’s not terribly uncommon for these two reports to come in mixed (they have different data reporting cutoffs, methodologies, etc).

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