Congrats, you’ve just survived the longest bitcoin bear market ever

There’s no formal definitions for bitcoin bear markets, but that shouldn’t stop us from celebrating stubbornness

OPINION
article-image

Canon Boy/Shutterstock.com modified by Blockworks

share

Bitcoin is a new paradigm, it’s been said, in which bubbles are mathematically impossible. Bear markets, however, are definitely part of our reality.

Still, relying on legacy finance definitions of bull and bear markets to map bitcoin cycles is a fool’s errand. 

The old ways dictate that bear markets begin when an asset drops 20% from recent highs and end when they rise 20% from local lows. The S&P 500 was declared to have exited its bear market about one month ago under these very conditions.

If those rules truly mapped to crypto, bitcoin (BTC) would’ve shed its most recent bear market sometime in early January, when BTC crossed $20,000 after crashing below $16,500 as FTX went kaput.

Bitcoin just finished a very long stretch of negative year-on-year returns

Another strategy riffs on those guidelines. A bear market would be over when bitcoin trades 20% above recent lows for one month or more. Bitcoin did just that this year, when it stayed above $18,800 throughout January until mid-February.

Here’s one more method: Bitcoin is in a bear market when its year-on-year returns are negative. It’s in a bull market when the opposite is true.

If that’s the case, then bitcoin exited its longest bear market ever on June 12, just a few days after the S&P.

  • Bitcoin’s year-on-year returns were negative for 490 days — a new record.
  • Returns reached as low as -83.6% across that period.
  • The previous record was 353 days between November 2014 and October 2015
The 2023-2023 line is much longer than the others

Bitcoin would’ve entered the most recent bear market early last February, when it traded for $44,000 — around 35% below its $69,000 high set in November 2021.

It’s a very basic hypothetical. Nevertheless, it would imply that bitcoin has been in a bull market for the past 24 days. BTC’s year-on-year returns have hit more than 61% in that time.

Most probably, it’s too early to say that we’re back. Don’t let that dampen your parade, especially if you’ve been holding since at least the start of last year.

Congratulations, you just survived the longest bear market in history. You’re now a crypto veteran, for better or worse.


David is an Editor based in the Netherlands focused on data-driven journalism. Previously, he wrote for TheNextWeb’s crypto vertical before launching Protos in 2021. He’s a reformed hardline Bitcoiner passionate about permissionless and decentralized networks. Contact David at [email protected]

Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 24 - 26, 2026

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Unlocked by Template (1).jpg

Research

As AI supercharges surveillance, privacy becomes a prerequisite and the winning stack will combine confidentiality with selective disclosure. Zcash’s Tachyon, composable standards on Ethereum/Solana, and compliance-aware pools aim to make private rails the new norm.

article-image

Pineapple begins deploying its $100 million Injective Digital Asset Treasury, staking INJ to earn yield and fund onchain mortgage ambitions

by Blockworks /
article-image

Staking levels in the ether funds will depend on protocol unstaking queue times and anticipated redemption activity, firm says

article-image

ETF inflows, miner strength, and tightening supply drive Bitcoin past its prior peak amid renewed demand for scarce assets

by Blockworks /
article-image

The Guidestar team, led by Alex Nezlobin, will join Uniswap Labs to enhance automated market maker design and smart order routing

by Blockworks /
article-image

Zac Prince spearheads Galaxy’s push into consumer banking with high-yield cash, crypto, and stock trading features

by Blockworks /