Looking back (and ahead) a year after bitcoin ETF approval

Bitwise argued in its 2025 outlook report that bitcoin ETFs will attract more flows in 2025 than they did in 2024

article-image

Maquette.pro/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


Investors learned one year ago today that US spot bitcoin ETFs finally had the go-ahead to launch, with those products hitting the market the following day. 

We now have 12 months of data to look back on.

It was fun reading my piece published the morning of Jan. 10, 2024, which recapped what led to that milestone.

The Winklevoss twins filing for a bitcoin ETF in 2013; BTC futures funds hitting the US market in 2021; the SEC blocking Grayscale’s GBTC conversion the following year — and the firm then suing the regulator; BlackRock’s head-turning proposal in mid-2023; and, finally, Grayscale’s legal win

Predictions seeking to quantify the demand for these then proliferated, with many expecting the bitcoin ETFs to shatter records

Spoiler: They did.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart reflected on his $15 billion year-one net inflow expectation from a year ago. These were higher expectations than most in the TradFi research world, he told me. Yet lower than some projections from those in the crypto space.

“Still, even issuers who expected these to be blockbuster hits did not expect them to do this well,” Seyffart told me. “They now hold over 1.13 million bitcoin and have $100 billion in assets after taking in almost $38 billion of net inflows in their first year — more than double what we thought would have been a very successful launch.”

Loading Tweet..

In its 2025 outlook report, Bitwise argued that bitcoin ETFs will attract more flows in 2025 than they did in 2024. 

Others have a bit more of a nuanced perspective.

Seyffart noted that after the products welcomed roughly $16 billion in assets during Q4 alone, another $15 billion inflow year (matching his initial year-one prediction) seems like “a foregone conclusion assuming the economy avoids a recession.” 

Though he didn’t share a precise 2025 inflow projection, Seyffart believes bitcoin ETFs will grow to triple the size of gold ETFs within the next three to five years. 

The biggest bitcoin ETF — BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) — has well surpassed its iShares Gold Trust (IAU) in AUM — ~$52 billion to ~$33 billion. IBIT is still chasing the category-leading SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which manages roughly $74 billion.

Seyffart highlighted bitcoin’s various use cases: a hedge against currency debasement, as well as a form of “hot sauce and satellite positions” in a portfolio given the asset’s volatility. 

He and Neena Mishra, director of ETF research at Zacks Investment Research, also pointed out more wirehouses greenlighting bitcoin ETFs in 2025 as a potential catalyst. Remember Morgan Stanley’s move in August? 

Meanwhile, BlackRock and Fidelity — as powerhouses in the asset management industry — are set to continue “legitimizing” bitcoin, which cannot be overlooked, Mishra added.

“However, much will depend on bitcoin’s performance, as ETF flows tend to follow performance trends,” she said.

Alongside macro factors, set to be a major factor on BTC price in 2025 is whether (and how quickly) the promise of crypto regulatory progress is fulfilled.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

🚀 Build What’s Next — Permissionless IV Hackathon Join us June 22–23 in Brooklyn for the Permissionless IV Hackathon — a 36-hour sprint hosted by Cracked Labs and Blockworks where top builders turn ideas into real products. Come to launch, not just […]

recent research

Research Report Templates (10).png

Research

Kamino has evolved into a full-stack asset scaling suite with V2: unlocking new markets, improving capital efficiency, and catering to various risk profiles. We believe it is best positioned to become the credit backbone of Solana as the ecosystem matures. Simply put, KMNO remains our highest-conviction bet in the Solana ecosystem. This report lays out our thesis.

article-image

With an updated Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed sees growth slowing and inflation increasing

article-image

Where do crypto mobile games go from here?

article-image

Bybit’s Byreal, Binance Alpha and Coinbase’s DEX integrations

article-image

This isn’t the worst hack to ever hit Mt. Gox, but it could be the most entertaining

article-image

Crossover’s CEO discusses institutional interest and how over-the-counter (OTC) trading has picked up in crypto

article-image

Sponsored

This collaboration signifies a major leap forward in expanding the reach and utility of Web3 gaming within the vibrant Asian market