Bitcoin analysts weigh significance of lift off from 200-day moving average

This week’s surge, led by speculative bets surrounding a US spot bitcoin ETF has the world’s two largest digital assets trending

article-image

Zakharchuk/Shutterstock, modified by Blockworks

share

Recent market moves have placed two major blue-chip digital assets trending back above their long-term moving averages, often cited by technical analysts as a pivot from bearish to bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin, whose price surge this week saw the asset rise more than 14% to top out at a yearly high above $35,000, first crossed over its 200-day moving average on Oct. 16. On the weekly view, BTC has also crossed that threshold over the same period.

The 200-day MA is a widely observed technical indicator used by traders and analysts to gauge the long-term trend of an asset. 

When the current price of an asset is above its 200-day MA, it’s generally considered to be in an upward trend, signaling bullish sentiment. Conversely, when the asset’s current price is below that average, it is seen as a bearish indicator. 

Or, so the thinking goes from those looking to read the tea leaves of recent events. Earlier warning signs this year, presented by an ominous daily “death cross,” failed to amount to notable sell-side price action. Instead, bitcoin rose 7.6% to test long-term moving average resistance at the beginning of the month.

“The move above is more significant when volatility increases and there is a notable trend shift,” Sam Holman, derivatives analyst at Zerocap told Blockworks. “In 2023, it’s been trading above and below quite frequently this year so it holds less merit currently.” 

Monday and Tuesday’s $4,000 price bump has further widened the gap between the asset and its closing price over the last 200 days, representing a more than 20% difference.

“I’d expect it to hold as a support level if we see a retracement from the current levels lower,” Holamn said. That posits a potential pullback to $28,000 based on the average’s trajectory.

Michael Silberberg, Head of Investor Relations at Alt-Tab Capital told Blockworks detractors are being proven wrong, with $400 million in short liquidation during the previous 24 hours.

“Retail investors are making their move to invest in the market before the institutions change the name of the game forever, with spot buys outpacing sells by 50%,” he said.

The surge appears to have been initiated by reports that BlackRock is gearing up to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF, K33 Research wrote in a note on Tuesday. Slated for cash seeding in October, BlackRock has designated the ticker “IBTC” for its potential upcoming bitcoin ETF. 

Ether (ETH) too has followed suit having crossed above its 200-day MA in late Tuesday trading. The asset is just shy of $10 from its closing price over the same period, meaning it would take a small move to the downside to bring the long-term technical view back into seller territory.

While the asset has lagged behind, ether has continued to exhibit signs of resiliency, notching its first daily higher high close since July.

According to data provided by Etherscan, daily transaction counts have held steady for the previous six months after briefly spiking to 1.6 million on Sept. 13.  Active ether addresses have also kept their balance, nestling along the 400,000 total over the same period.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Unlocked by Template (10).png

Research

Innovations on Aptos’ technical design through Raptr, Shardines, and Zaptos approach near-optimal latency and throughput by unlocking 100% utilization of network resources, with the capacity to settle 260k transactions per second with latencies less than 800ms. The original Move language was revamped with the launch of Move 2, supporting more expressivity in smart contract logic and a scalable ability to interact with high volume datasets. The ecosystem has benefitted from strong asset inflows, now hosting over $1.3B in stablecoins, $450M in bridged BTC, and $530M in RWAs. Activity in the Aptos ecosystem has grown notably over the past year, with monthly application revenue reaching ~$835k and monthly DEX volumes growing to over $5B, both at new all time highs.

article-image

If pump.fun is a success, NYSE may have to return to a six-day workweek

article-image

One wallet bought pump.fun’s token from 500 different addresses

article-image

Asset allocator says fee compression could be a challenge as Grayscale converts more crypto funds to ETFs

article-image

The Stripe-acquired firm has big plans for a streamlined, multi-wallet future

article-image

Both founders of the former crypto lender have now landed in new crypto industry roles