Crypto correction could be just the calm before the storm

At this point in the last cycle, bitcoin was well on its way to its first major peak

article-image

Shtange Pavel Vladimirovich/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


By this point in the previous bull market, bitcoin was well on its way to its first cycle top.

Those peaks are always obvious in retrospect. Bitcoin had exploded from $10,000 to more than $60,000 in six months. Looking back, the market was overdue for a correction, and bitcoin retraced by around 50% over the next eight weeks.

This leads us to the obvious question today: Is this sea of red the start of a similar correction?

Below plots bitcoin price action over the bull market to date in purple (starting at the bottom of the previous bear market in November 2022), compared to the bull market returns from the cycle that started in 2018.

Usually, I include a chart on a log scale that maps returns going back to 2015. This time around, the chart is on a linear scale and only compares this cycle to the previous one. 

(You can find an interactive version of the chart here, where you can choose what you see by clicking on the swatches).

If the current retracement is in fact the early stages of a 50%-plus correction, then it would be starting around 40 days earlier than the last time. Which I suppose wouldn’t be out of the ordinary.

Perhaps, it might be better to just get the correction out of the way — if there’s indeed enough momentum on the other side of it to drive it back to new highs, like there was in mid-to-late 2021.

One problem. That only covers bitcoin. A 50% correction in BTC has historically dragged other coins down much further, which would be painful considering how dire the vibes are right now.

In searching for positives, there’s this: We are now entering the eighth week of 2025. The altcoin market — all coins that aren’t in the top 10 by market cap — has posted negative returns for all but two weeks.

That is an incredibly low strike rate of only 25% if we count the current week that started on Monday as a red candle. 

At its worst over the past 10 years, the altcoin market has posted positive weekly returns 42% of the time, and that was in 2022 during the depths of the longest bear market on record

So, if anything, as rough as the market is right now, it still looks like the calm before a storm of volatility in both directions. Hooray.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates.png

Research

Pipe Network is a decentralized content delivery network (dCDN) that replaces the sparse, capital intensive data center footprint of traditional CDNs with a permissionless mesh of independent node operators. By orchestrating under-utilized resources that already exist at the edge, rather than purchasing or leasing thousands of servers, Pipe slashes capital intensity while letting supply expand autonomously in the places where bandwidth is scarcest and most expensive.

article-image

ETH’s “breakout marks a significant structural shift and clears the path towards…$4,000,” Kraken’s OTC desk noted

article-image

Fiscal dominance isn’t about interest rates and it isn’t about Trump, either

article-image

Firestarter Storage brings decentralized storage and delivery to Solana

article-image

After lengthy closing arguments on Wednesday, the case is now in the hands of 12 jurors

article-image

Analysts cite weak trading volume and regulatory progress as factors

article-image

Builders weigh in on Ethereum’s first decade and the decisions that will define its next one