Rough dollar performance and Treasury market selloff close out a tumultuous week
The dollar index is down 3.7% today from Wednesday, and consumer sentiment fell to lower than expected
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It’s been quite a week.
We had Manic Monday and then Blink Wednesday, followed by what I’ll dub “That Didn’t Last Long Thursday.” Sadly, today’s not shaping up to be Fun Friday.
The good news: If you bought the S&P 500 when the president told you to, you’re still in the green. For now, at least.
The bad news: everything else. Not to be dramatic.
The dollar is slipping: The DXY is down 3.7% today from Wednesday and the euro is at a three-year high against USD.
Treasury markets are still selling off — worse now than the Tuesday night meltdown that reportedly inspired the president’s pivot. Yield on the 10-year once again surpassed 4.5% Thursday morning, and it’s looking like Treasurys will post the biggest weekly loss since 2019, when the Fed had to step in.
Analysts say markets are realizing that a 10% baseline tax on almost all trading partners — although better than the initial plans — could still spell trouble for inflation and growth.
Consumers aren’t feeling too optimistic, either. Consumer sentiment fell to 50.8 in April, down from 57 in March and lower than expected, according to data released this morning by the University of Michigan. The one-year inflation outlook also rose from 5% to 6.7%.
In terms of clarity on the future of trade policy, we are back to where we were pre-Liberation Day. Bulls insisted early last week that no matter what the administration announced, having a concrete plan on the table would be a silver lining.
Now the administration has 88 days to ink deals with 150 countries. There’s also the fallout with China, which this morning raised levies on US imports from 84% to 125%.
Trump’s National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on CNBC today that there’s “a big inventory of deals” approaching the “finish line,” so there’s that. We hope he’s right, but forgive us if the past week of White House communications has made us skeptical.
I hope everyone is able to unplug this weekend. Maybe heed the advice a friend gave me last Friday, which I certainly will be doing come 5 pm. We’ll see you back here on Monday.
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