Bitcoin market catalysts on Galaxy’s charts

Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn expects a positive market response if House-backed crypto bills prompt Senate action

article-image

Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock, modified by Blockworks

share

Bitcoin’s latest market fluctuations have left seasoned investors unperturbed.

Last week, within a span of 2 hours, bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 10% to about $25,300. This marked the most significant BTC deleveraging instance since FTX’s downfall in Nov. 2022.

After the dip, Galaxy Research observed that smaller bitcoin addresses boosted their holdings. On-chain data indicated addresses with up to 10 BTC added more to their balances.

“Long-term holders have been net accumulating (on a rolling 30d basis) since March,” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn said in a note published Monday.

Looking ahead, Thorn identified three major factors that could amplify bitcoin’s volatility throughout the remainer of 2023.

Grayscale v. SEC outcome, other court cases

After the US Securities and Exchange Commission turned down Grayscale’s request to transform its bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund, Grayscale promptly took legal action and filed a petition for review. 

Grayscale views the upcoming verdict in this matter as a near-term potential catalyst.

“A win for Grayscale is unlikely to result in the approval of GBTC’s conversion to an ETF, but could require the SEC to reconsider Grayscale’s application,” Thorn wrote.

The SEC recently sued Coinbase and Binance for alleged securities violations.

Decisions regarding dismissal requests in the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase and progress in several cases targeting Binance might also influence the market, Thorn noted.

Crypto regulatory bills

The US House is presently reviewing bills aiming to establish regulations geared towards crypto market structure and the issuance of stablecoins.

Thorn believes that if these bills gain enough support in the House to prompt Senate action, the crypto markets could see a positive reaction.

Bond markets and macro events

A deeper slump in the bond markets could pose challenges for risk assets, including bitcoin, Thorn wrote in the note.

However, macro events like additional banking system issues or ratings agency downgrades might boost bitcoin, similar to the uptick after Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in March, he added.


Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.

Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter.

Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.

The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

Tags

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 18 - 20, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates (1).jpg

Research

With $13B in tokenized assets, strong institutional partnerships, and a clear first-mover advantage in the RWA space. The platform's methodical approach to regulatory compliance, coupled with its hybrid public-private architecture, positions it uniquely to capture significant market share in the emerging tokenization landscape. While current fee generation primarily stems from metadata transactions, the planned launch of Figure Markets, major exchange listings, and comprehensive market-making initiatives in 2025 could serve as powerful catalysts for growth.

article-image

Perena is built on the premise that as stablecoins proliferate, liquidity could fragment, and stablecoins aren’t useful if they aren’t liquid

article-image

From hackathons to trading tools and DAO governance, AI agents are redefining how we build and innovate

article-image

CME’s large bitcoin contracts are so big that investors are turning to micro bitcoin contracts

article-image

The third-largest stablecoin is going multichain for the first time in its seven-year history

article-image

Nano Labs’ news release notes confidence in bitcoin being “a reliable store of value amidst its rising global adoption”

article-image

Several big companies report third quarter earnings this week, likely moving markets