Bitcoin market catalysts on Galaxy’s charts

Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn expects a positive market response if House-backed crypto bills prompt Senate action


Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock, modified by Blockworks


Bitcoin’s latest market fluctuations have left seasoned investors unperturbed.

Last week, within a span of 2 hours, bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 10% to about $25,300. This marked the most significant BTC deleveraging instance since FTX’s downfall in Nov. 2022.

After the dip, Galaxy Research observed that smaller bitcoin addresses boosted their holdings. On-chain data indicated addresses with up to 10 BTC added more to their balances.

“Long-term holders have been net accumulating (on a rolling 30d basis) since March,” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn said in a note published Monday.

Looking ahead, Thorn identified three major factors that could amplify bitcoin’s volatility throughout the remainer of 2023.

Grayscale v. SEC outcome, other court cases

After the US Securities and Exchange Commission turned down Grayscale’s request to transform its bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund, Grayscale promptly took legal action and filed a petition for review. 

Grayscale views the upcoming verdict in this matter as a near-term potential catalyst.

“A win for Grayscale is unlikely to result in the approval of GBTC’s conversion to an ETF, but could require the SEC to reconsider Grayscale’s application,” Thorn wrote.

The SEC recently sued Coinbase and Binance for alleged securities violations.

Decisions regarding dismissal requests in the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase and progress in several cases targeting Binance might also influence the market, Thorn noted.

Crypto regulatory bills

The US House is presently reviewing bills aiming to establish regulations geared towards crypto market structure and the issuance of stablecoins.

Thorn believes that if these bills gain enough support in the House to prompt Senate action, the crypto markets could see a positive reaction.

Bond markets and macro events

A deeper slump in the bond markets could pose challenges for risk assets, including bitcoin, Thorn wrote in the note.

However, macro events like additional banking system issues or ratings agency downgrades might boost bitcoin, similar to the uptick after Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in March, he added.

Don’t miss the next big story – join our free daily newsletter.


Upcoming Events

MON - WED, MARCH 18 - 20, 2024

Digital Asset Summit (DAS) is returning March 2024. What you can expect: And more! Don’t miss out on the opportunity to be in the room when the future of crypto is decided. Join us and help shape the future of our […]

recent research

Research report - cover graphics-2.jpg


Base has doubled-down on its commitment to the Superchain vision, has shown early signs of success with nearly $400M in TVL, and has become home to novel dapps such as which has seen significant traction.


The bitcoin halving slated for April 2024 — an event expected to spur upward price action for BTC — could be a boon for Block’s stock price, analysts say


Seed Club founder Jess Sloss is excited to “open the doors and let other people see what we’ve been seeing for the last few months”


Blockchain is a “natural fit” in games based on open economies and user-generated content, says Wyatt


Their current stance is a half-baked attempt that could stifle innovation and burden an emerging industry


Maker’s DeFi-focused “subDAO” passed a proposal activating a lending market for DAI on the Gnosis Chain


Certain creditors could be repaid sooner, with one hedge fund exec telling Blockworks it expects a payout by the end of the year