Bitcoin market catalysts on Galaxy’s charts

Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn expects a positive market response if House-backed crypto bills prompt Senate action

article-image

Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock, modified by Blockworks

share

Bitcoin’s latest market fluctuations have left seasoned investors unperturbed.

Last week, within a span of 2 hours, bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 10% to about $25,300. This marked the most significant BTC deleveraging instance since FTX’s downfall in Nov. 2022.

After the dip, Galaxy Research observed that smaller bitcoin addresses boosted their holdings. On-chain data indicated addresses with up to 10 BTC added more to their balances.

“Long-term holders have been net accumulating (on a rolling 30d basis) since March,” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn said in a note published Monday.

Looking ahead, Thorn identified three major factors that could amplify bitcoin’s volatility throughout the remainer of 2023.

Grayscale v. SEC outcome, other court cases

After the US Securities and Exchange Commission turned down Grayscale’s request to transform its bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund, Grayscale promptly took legal action and filed a petition for review. 

Grayscale views the upcoming verdict in this matter as a near-term potential catalyst.

“A win for Grayscale is unlikely to result in the approval of GBTC’s conversion to an ETF, but could require the SEC to reconsider Grayscale’s application,” Thorn wrote.

The SEC recently sued Coinbase and Binance for alleged securities violations.

Decisions regarding dismissal requests in the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase and progress in several cases targeting Binance might also influence the market, Thorn noted.

Crypto regulatory bills

The US House is presently reviewing bills aiming to establish regulations geared towards crypto market structure and the issuance of stablecoins.

Thorn believes that if these bills gain enough support in the House to prompt Senate action, the crypto markets could see a positive reaction.

Bond markets and macro events

A deeper slump in the bond markets could pose challenges for risk assets, including bitcoin, Thorn wrote in the note.

However, macro events like additional banking system issues or ratings agency downgrades might boost bitcoin, similar to the uptick after Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in March, he added.


Don’t miss the next big story – join our free daily newsletter.

Tags

Upcoming Events

Hilton Metropole | 225 Edgware Rd, London

Mon - Wed, March 18 - 20, 2024

Crypto’s premier institutional conference returns to London in March 2024. The DAS: London Experience: Attend expert-led panel discussions and fireside chats Hear the latest developments regarding the crypto and digital asset regulatory environment directly from policymakers and experts.

Salt Lake City, UT

WED - FRI, OCTOBER 9 - 11, 2024

Pack your bags, anon — we’re heading west! Join us in the beautiful Salt Lake City for the third installment of Permissionless. Come for the alpha, stay for the fresh air. Permissionless III promises unforgettable panels, killer networking opportunities, and mountains […]

recent research

Top Icon.png

Research

Osmosis thrived in H2 2023 on the back of increased DeFi activity deriving from recently launched Cosmos-related projects and better market conditions. With new value accrual mechanisms for the native token, Osmosis is well-positioned to continue its strong performance in 2024.

/

article-image

Though the opposing flow trend is likely to slow over time, industry watchers note, bitcoin fund assets could one day eclipse the $90 billion gold ETF space

article-image

Celestia had the first mover advantage. EigenDA has staked ether. What sets Avail apart?

article-image

Bitcoin moved 1% higher Monday morning in New York, Matrixport analysts say $62,000 could happen next month

article-image

It’s hard to believe right now that crypto — even with all of its flexibility and massive capabilities — could ever be like cash on the internet

article-image

Michael Saylor announced Monday morning that MicroStrategy bought 3k more bitcoin after the X account was compromised over the weekend

article-image

Plus, Pudgy Penguins grows its brand and a group of Autoglyphs sell for $14.5 million