The price of bitcoin is at a ‘critical juncture’ 

BTC’s next major move “will likely be dictated by macroeconomic trends and could be decisive,” Bitfinex analysts said

article-image

MediaStore/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


You probably saw bitcoin’s latest price plummet, briefly falling below $86,000 for the first time since November. It comes as the Bybit hack and SEC moves grab headlines — not to mention the relentless non-crypto macro developments.

Even before BTC’s drop, Bitfinex analysts laid out the scene. Bitcoin had mostly traded between $91,000 and $102,000 for weeks, rearing its head to a peak around $109,000 last month.

“Bitcoin remains at a critical juncture after nearly 90 days of consolidation,” they explained. “As market participants await a catalyst, bitcoinʼs next major move will likely be dictated by macroeconomic trends and could be decisive.”

Fast forward a day, and Compass Point analysts Ed Engel and Joe Flynn note that BTC’s latest drop means it has broken the $92,000 support level (the cost basis for holders who bought within the last six months).     

“Selling has accelerated as short-term holders are less likely to tolerate unrealized losses,” they explained. “$86,000 is the last line of defense before the air pocket of trading activity that took place between $77,000 to $86,000.”

BTC’s price hovered around $86,950 at 2 pm ET. That’s down 5% in the past 24 hours. It’s a 9% drop from seven days ago and a 17% decrease over the last month.

Trading volumes remain near year-to-date lows and slightly above pre-election levels, Engel and Flynn added.

CoinShares research head James Butterfill attributed the flow of $571 million out of bitcoin investment products last week to “uncertainty around trade tariffs, inflation and monetary policy.”

The US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $516 million more leave their coffers yesterday, Farside Investors data shows — the highest level since Jan. 8. Those funds have now endured net outflows for five straight days.

Bitcoinʼs increasing correlation with traditional markets has exacerbated this “corrective phase” seen across crypto assets, Bitfinex analysts argue, noting the S&P 500ʼs fall below the 6,000 level.

And if you missed it, Blockworks’ David Canellis took a look at the timing of the last bull market’s 50% correction, and what that could signal this time around. 


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 24 - 26, 2026

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Unlocked by Template (1).jpg

Research

As AI supercharges surveillance, privacy becomes a prerequisite and the winning stack will combine confidentiality with selective disclosure. Zcash’s Tachyon, composable standards on Ethereum/Solana, and compliance-aware pools aim to make private rails the new norm.

article-image

Bain Capital Crypto and Haun Ventures co-led the round as demand grows for Bitcoin-denominated savings and annuities

by Blockworks /
article-image

NYSE owner’s investment values the prediction market at $8–9 billion, signaling Wall Street’s entry into event-based trading

by Blockworks /
article-image

Pineapple begins deploying its $100 million Injective Digital Asset Treasury, staking INJ to earn yield and fund onchain mortgage ambitions

by Blockworks /
article-image

Staking levels in the ether funds will depend on protocol unstaking queue times and anticipated redemption activity, firm says

article-image

ETF inflows, miner strength, and tightening supply drive Bitcoin past its prior peak amid renewed demand for scarce assets

by Blockworks /
article-image

The Guidestar team, led by Alex Nezlobin, will join Uniswap Labs to enhance automated market maker design and smart order routing

by Blockworks /