The price of bitcoin is at a ‘critical juncture’ 

BTC’s next major move “will likely be dictated by macroeconomic trends and could be decisive,” Bitfinex analysts said

article-image

MediaStore/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


You probably saw bitcoin’s latest price plummet, briefly falling below $86,000 for the first time since November. It comes as the Bybit hack and SEC moves grab headlines — not to mention the relentless non-crypto macro developments.

Even before BTC’s drop, Bitfinex analysts laid out the scene. Bitcoin had mostly traded between $91,000 and $102,000 for weeks, rearing its head to a peak around $109,000 last month.

“Bitcoin remains at a critical juncture after nearly 90 days of consolidation,” they explained. “As market participants await a catalyst, bitcoinʼs next major move will likely be dictated by macroeconomic trends and could be decisive.”

Fast forward a day, and Compass Point analysts Ed Engel and Joe Flynn note that BTC’s latest drop means it has broken the $92,000 support level (the cost basis for holders who bought within the last six months).     

“Selling has accelerated as short-term holders are less likely to tolerate unrealized losses,” they explained. “$86,000 is the last line of defense before the air pocket of trading activity that took place between $77,000 to $86,000.”

BTC’s price hovered around $86,950 at 2 pm ET. That’s down 5% in the past 24 hours. It’s a 9% drop from seven days ago and a 17% decrease over the last month.

Trading volumes remain near year-to-date lows and slightly above pre-election levels, Engel and Flynn added.

CoinShares research head James Butterfill attributed the flow of $571 million out of bitcoin investment products last week to “uncertainty around trade tariffs, inflation and monetary policy.”

The US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $516 million more leave their coffers yesterday, Farside Investors data shows — the highest level since Jan. 8. Those funds have now endured net outflows for five straight days.

Bitcoinʼs increasing correlation with traditional markets has exacerbated this “corrective phase” seen across crypto assets, Bitfinex analysts argue, noting the S&P 500ʼs fall below the 6,000 level.

And if you missed it, Blockworks’ David Canellis took a look at the timing of the last bull market’s 50% correction, and what that could signal this time around. 


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

🚀 Build What’s Next — Permissionless IV Hackathon Join us June 22–23 in Brooklyn for the Permissionless IV Hackathon — a 36-hour sprint hosted by Cracked Labs and Blockworks where top builders turn ideas into real products. Come to launch, not just […]

recent research

Research Report Templates (10).png

Research

Kamino has evolved into a full-stack asset scaling suite with V2: unlocking new markets, improving capital efficiency, and catering to various risk profiles. We believe it is best positioned to become the credit backbone of Solana as the ecosystem matures. Simply put, KMNO remains our highest-conviction bet in the Solana ecosystem. This report lays out our thesis.

article-image

With an updated Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed sees growth slowing and inflation increasing

article-image

Where do crypto mobile games go from here?

article-image

Bybit’s Byreal, Binance Alpha and Coinbase’s DEX integrations

article-image

This isn’t the worst hack to ever hit Mt. Gox, but it could be the most entertaining

article-image

Crossover’s CEO discusses institutional interest and how over-the-counter (OTC) trading has picked up in crypto

article-image

Sponsored

This collaboration signifies a major leap forward in expanding the reach and utility of Web3 gaming within the vibrant Asian market