‘Short-term volatility’ doesn’t dim crypto outlook: 21Shares

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.

---

Well, so much for a rebound after last week.

Instead, the market is reacting to a whole new set of issues — ones that aren’t tied to ByBit or North Korean hackers. 

President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US will proceed with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico today sent both traditional equities and crypto into a freefall. The overall crypto market cap is now sitting at $2.82 trillion, an 11% decrease over the past day, according to Blockworks Research data. 

Yikes. 

Bitcoin is in the low $80,000’s, a far cry from the $90,000 level we cheerfully retook after President Trump posted about the strategic reserve. 

Over on Derive.xyz, “traders are showing strong demand for high-leverage calls, with 49.4% of BTC premiums and 45.5% of ETH premiums being calls bought. This indicates that traders are seeking upside exposure in the wake of the large price fluctuations.”

This shouldn’t be too surprising if you’ve been following the price action. But “BTC’s 7-day implied volatility jumped from 47% to 70%, and 30-day volatility rose from 47% to 55%,” Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Dervive.xyz, noted. Following the rally, the volatility temporarily settled but it’s since spiked again.

Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, told me: “[T]he market reaction reflects renewed fears of inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, but this selloff appears to be an overreaction. Many investors had anticipated these moves, and as futures markets adjust overnight, we could see stabilization when trading resumes [this morning].”

Yesterday, I thought I had aptly named the PayPal section “green shoots” but it turns out today’s the day with some actual green shoots — at least if you ask Mena. 

“Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for the crypto sector remains bright. Notably, CME Solana futures are scheduled to begin trading on March 17, a significant milestone that could accelerate the SEC’s approval timeline for Solana spot ETFs,” he added.

Whether or not movement around SOL ETFs reignites a rally remains to be seen. But basing it off of what we’re currently witnessing, I’m a skeptic. 

While folks like Eric Trump encourage people to buy the dips, I take a bit more of a cautious position. There’s nothing wrong with taking advantage of lower prices, but there are a lot of unknowns currently — and no market reacts well to that. 

Loading Tweet..

Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look at some altcoin data from Kaiko. 

“A year ago, the top 10 altcoins by market cap accounted for 58% of altcoin volume on U.S. platforms and 50% on offshore exchanges. As of last week, those shares had risen to 77% and 66%, respectively,” Kaiko noted. 

Pantera’s Paul Veradittakit told us yesterday that we could see a potential increase in the likelihood of an altcoin season. This type of volatility seems to put that hope on the backburner for now. 

What’s clear is that we’re continuing in the same market that we’ve been in for the last few weeks and it doesn’t look like we’ve broken the pattern yet. 

If anyone has a crystal ball, you know how to reach me.

---

Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

• Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
• Empire: Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross.
• Forward Guidance: Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin.
• 0xResearch: Get alpha directly in your inbox — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.
• Lightspeed: All things Solana, in your inbox, every day from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.
• The Drop: The newsletter for crypto collectors and traders, covering games, tokens, apps, memes and more.