JPMorgan says GBTC outflows stemmed, bitcoin downside ‘should be largely behind us’

Analysts at the firm noted bitcoin open interest, ETF inflows are rising again

article-image

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon | lev radin/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share

JPMorgan analysts penned a market strategy note Thursday that profit-taking on Grayscale’s bitcoin ETF (GBTC) had likely concluded, thus “limiting any downside for bitcoin from here.”

The analysis from JPMorgan would amount to a reversal of fortunes for bitcoin and its largest spot ETF. It follows a Tuesday note from JPMorgan claiming that the ETF catalyst would “disappoint market participants.”

Newly-approved spot bitcoin ETFs logged their single largest day of outflows Wednesday. Investors cashed out on $429 million worth of GBTC, bringing the product’s total outflows to roughly $4.4 billion in nine days of trading.

Bitcoin has spent much of the week trading below $40,000 after topping $49,000 in the immediate aftermath of the ETF approvals.

Read more: Spot bitcoin ETF net outflows hit highest level yet on day 9 of trading

JPMorgan previously estimated $3 billion would depart GBTC as investors took profit on the ETF trading below the value of bitcoin, the note said. The FTX estate was reportedly among the investors selling their GBTC.

The group of analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, think the GBTC sell-off has concluded and “most of the downward pressure on bitcoin from that channel should be largely behind us.”

The note estimates another $1.3 billion shifted from GBTC to other spot bitcoin ETFs with lower fees. The analysts argue the shift in funds from GBTC to competing ETFs will likely continue if Grayscale fails to lower its fee of 1.5%, which is much higher than the 0.25% charged by competing offerings from Blackrock and Fidelity.

The note’s appendix shows upticks in open interest and bitcoin fund flows on Tuesday. Bitcoin open interest is up a little under 1% in the past 24 hours, according to data from Coinglass. 

Earlier this week, JPMorgan downgraded the stock of popular bitcoin ETF custodian Coinbase following underwhelming week one performance from the slew of spot ETFs.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 24 - 26, 2026

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Unlocked by Template.png

Research

The march toward an interoperable and onchain-by-default internet depends on reliable messaging and value transfer across heterogeneous domains. Crosschain protocols now process >$1.3T in combined annual transfer volume and secure tens of millions of user interactions, yet no single design dominates.

article-image

The goal, per Santiago Santos, is to make crypto a relatable piece of tech for people who may not even understand it

article-image

Stripe stablecoin unit aims to operate under a federal charter enabling regulated stablecoin issuance and custody services

by Blockworks /
article-image

Will TradFi make crypto better or create more problems than it solves?

article-image

Subtle decisions by risk curators saved Aave from significant turmoil

article-image

The new Rootstock Institutional unit aims to connect professional investors to Bitcoin-native yield and liquidity strategies anchored in BTC’s security layer

by Blockworks /
article-image

DOJ files record civil forfeiture against more than 127,000 BTC linked to scam activity

by Blockworks /