Will tariffs be the catalyst for bitcoin’s decoupling?

Analysts are lowering their earnings estimates for Big Tech, while BTC continues to outperform top names

article-image

BEST-BACKGROUNDS/Shutterstock and Adobe modified by Blockworks

share

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


Another day, another bitcoin rally. 

After making a run approaching its all-time high last night, bitcoin was back in the red this afternoon, hovering around $108,600 and trading 1.4% lower over the past 24 hours as of 2 p.m. ET. 

Bitcoin’s latest move is similar to what it did three weeks ago, when the largest cryptocurrency notched a new all-time high just shy of $112,000. BTC went from around $103,000 to above $110,000 in roughly two days. 

As Noelle Acheson pointed out in today’s Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, bitcoin’s late-May rally coincided with a surge in short liquidations. In other words, investors were buying up BTC to cover their leveraged short positions. 

Short BTC liquidations lately are similarly high, so Acheson estimates that last night’s run up was likely driven by leverage covering vs. new spot investors. I’d have to agree. 

That being said, bitcoin often trades like a Big Tech stock: It’s high volatility and, at least in recent months (dare I say years), has not been insulated from macroeconomic moves. 

Bitcoin’s correlation to the Nasdaq Composite is currently 0.81, according to data from Yahoo Finance. The crypto’s correlation with gold has recently moved negative, now sitting at -0.07, per Yahoo Finance. 

The “bitcoin is digital gold” narrative has certainly lost steam in recent years, with the cryptocurrency rising and falling along with risk appetites. Just look at what happened in April: BTC lost more than 11% the week after April 2 (Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day”). The S&P 500 shed 12%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 13%. 

Before the HODLers come for me, yes, bitcoin bounced back stronger than stocks. Since April 2, BTC has gained around 29%. The S&P 500 is up 7%, and the Nasdaq Composite has gained just under 12%.  

I still think bitcoin is going to trade on big macro news (interest rate decisions, inflation data, employment reports, etc.), but I’ll add that Big Tech companies are obviously more vulnerable to tariff policies, and we’ve seen that in the price action. 

Apple is down more than 17% year to date. Alphabet has lost more than 5% since the start of 2025. 

Bitcoin is up more than 16%. 

Looking ahead, the eight biggest US tech stocks (Mag 7 plus Broadcom) have seen an average downward earnings revision for Q2 of -5.9% (-2.2% if you exclude Tesla). Half of these names are currently underperforming the S&P year to date (Tesla, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon). 

I don’t think it’s too far-fetched to expect that BTC will continue to outperform these stocks, at least until the trade war settles down (assuming it does settle down, of course). Reminder that this is not investment advice, just your local newsletter writer taking a look into her crystal ball. 

With the second quarter nearing an end and few updates on trade deals, we’ll just have to wait and see.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Research Report Templates (10).png

Research

Kamino has evolved into a full-stack asset scaling suite with V2: unlocking new markets, improving capital efficiency, and catering to various risk profiles. We believe it is best positioned to become the credit backbone of Solana as the ecosystem matures. Simply put, KMNO remains our highest-conviction bet in the Solana ecosystem. This report lays out our thesis.

article-image

EigenCloud wants to make crypto-economic guarantees a plug-and-play primitive

article-image

In a new letter, Gemini alleges that the CFTC’s DOE had ulterior motives for 2022 suit

article-image

Sponsored

Neitec’s Debita platform is closing the credit gap by unlocking high-yield private debt in markets that need it most

article-image

From bank porters to stablecoins, the history of money is a story of acceleration

article-image

The Byreal DEX will use both centralized and decentralized liquidity sources to route trades

article-image

Last week’s solana ETF amendments points to “some sort of push from the SEC to get things organized,” a person familiar tells Blockworks.