Gradual tariff proposal fits with previous Trump strategy 

Ideally, a gradual implementation would allow for negotiations and prevent rapidly rising prices

article-image

President-elect Donald Trump | Chip Somodevilla/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


Stock futures rose this morning before the open — a move analysts largely attribute to reports that the Trump administration will opt for a gradual approach to tariff increases. 

Even though a better-than-expected PPI report on Tuesday helped boost equities early in the session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes quickly gave back these early gains. 

But let’s rewind to the conversation on tariffs. Bloomberg after the close yesterday reported that Trump’s team is considering ramping up tariffs at a slower pace than many initially thought, potentially by 2% to 5% increases per month. Ideally, the strategy would allow for negotiations and prevent rapidly rising prices. 

The vision aligns pretty perfectly with what Stephen Miran, Trump’s pick to lead his Council of Economic Advisors, told us on the Forward Guidance podcast a couple months ago. 

Back during Trump 1.0 (2018-2019), Miran pointed out, the proposed 25% tariffs on Chinese imports did not come in one fell swoop. The actual ~17% effective rate increase we did implement on China was spread out over 12 months. 

“The after-tariff dollar-import price of goods coming from China was practically unchanged,” Miran said on the episode. 

On the campaign trail, Trump proposed a minimum 10% to 20% tariff on all imports, and a 60% minimum rate on those coming from China. 

“In going to 60% tariffs on China or 10% globally, [a gradual] approach becomes even more important,” Miran wrote in a November 2024 paper on the global trade system.

If history repeats, we could see similar trade policies come down the line — which are likely to ease investor concern and boost equities.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Unlocked by Template (7).png

Research

Union’s improvements upon Tendermint consensus through CometBLS, coupled with ZK proving through Galois, allow for a broadly scalable, cost efficient, and low latency IBC implementation that is feasibly scalable across every existing blockchain, virtual machine and runtime. The implementation offers modular crosschain interoperability without the need for trusted intermediaries.  

article-image

A newly submitted SEC pilot proposal aims to tokenize US equities

article-image

As Schwab plots crypto trading upon “more clarity in the regulatory environment,” Morgan Stanley is reportedly interested too

article-image

Over 50 countries, including 8 of the 10 largest gaming markets, aren’t allowed to access the upcoming crypto game

article-image

Kraken’s chief security officer Nick Percoco said the exchange turned the tables on a North Korean hacker

article-image

Or is it approximately the least cypherpunk thing we could do?