VIX shows volatility will not be stopping anytime soon

The market volatility average is rising towards 2020 and 2008 levels, but context is important

article-image

Trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange | trading.biz/"Trading Floor at the New York Stock Exchange" (CC license)

share

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


Surprise, surprise. Wall Street’s favorite fear index is spiking. 

The Cboe Volatility Index was hovering around 48 Monday afternoon after spiking to 60 overnight. The index measures projected S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days. 

The VIX’s 30-day moving average has been on the rise in recent weeks, coming in at 21.4 at the beginning of the month vs. its long-running average of 19.5. 

We’re now almost four standard deviations above the long-term average, marking a level of volatility most recently seen in 2020 and 2008. 

You’re going to see a lot of comparisons to 2020 and 2008 in the coming weeks. While the sizes of the selloffs may be similar, I’d argue the sentiment could not be more different. 

The 2008 crash was characterized by broad mistrust in the financial system and uncertainty around how stability would be restored. Markets eventually recovered thanks to a massive stimulus package, financial bailouts and regulatory reform. 

In 2020, the recession was caused by global lockdowns, resulting in supply chain disruptions, mass layoffs and slower growth. Relief came alongside another massive stimulus package and government policies to reopen the economy. 

The situation we’re in today is not the result of a collapsed financial system or a global pandemic. It would take a single tweet from the president (or a misinformed X account, as we saw today) to push stocks into the green. I’m still undecided on if that’s better or worse.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Unlocked by Template (10).png

Research

Innovations on Aptos’ technical design through Raptr, Shardines, and Zaptos approach near-optimal latency and throughput by unlocking 100% utilization of network resources, with the capacity to settle 260k transactions per second with latencies less than 800ms. The original Move language was revamped with the launch of Move 2, supporting more expressivity in smart contract logic and a scalable ability to interact with high volume datasets. The ecosystem has benefitted from strong asset inflows, now hosting over $1.3B in stablecoins, $450M in bridged BTC, and $530M in RWAs. Activity in the Aptos ecosystem has grown notably over the past year, with monthly application revenue reaching ~$835k and monthly DEX volumes growing to over $5B, both at new all time highs.

article-image

Interchain Labs will focus on sovereign L1s and institutional demand, abandoning plans for smart contracts on the Cosmos Hub

article-image

Also, only three tokens have outperformed bitcoin so far this year: XMR, HYPE and SKY

article-image

The fund group has submitted proposals in recent months for other funds that would hold litecoin, solana, XRP, HBAR, Sui and others

article-image

Momentum’s back — BTC leads, risk assets follow

article-image

Ondo Finance’s acquisition of blockchain development company Strangelove follows its buy of Oasis Pro

article-image

Cryptocurrency and stock traders alike had a lot to unpack Wednesday