Key metrics for bitcoin tip bearish as global economy wobbles

The global economy wobbled last week on revelations China’s domestic market appeared to be weakening, perpetuating a risk-off mood from equities and crypto

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Flagship crypto bitcoin is beginning to unwind its momentum from earlier this year, following its largest single-day loss in 2023 late last week.

The asset has hit a 5-month low in its aSOPR (7-day moving average), falling to 0.99251, data from blockchain analytics provider Glassnode shows. Bitcoin has also closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since February.

The aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the profit and loss of coins moved on-chain. A decrease in the figure could indicate investors are selling at a loss.

Closing below the 200-day moving average, typically viewed as a bearish sign in financial markets, adds further insight into the industry marked by fresh volatility and regulatory challenges. 

Those metrics square against a global economy grappling with uncertainty, emphasizing the shifting focus this year away from digital assets and a potential pivot in investor sentiment. 

Selling pressure has swept across global markets, causing Wall Street’s primary indexes to end lower on Friday, while Asian shares ended down for a third straight week of losses. 

The driving factors behind these movements center on apprehensions about the state of China’s economy and the expectation that US interest rates will be maintained at higher levels for a more prolonged period.

While bitcoin’s (BTC) correction cannot be traced back to a single piece of fundamental news, several factors likely contributed, fintech firm NYDIG wrote in a recent research note.

Those include the bankruptcy of Evergrande late last week, a simultaneous Wall Street Journal article observing that SpaceX had disposed of all its bitcoin holdings in 2022 and the ongoing weakness in risk-associated markets such as equities since the beginning of the month.

“One ‘tell’ about the move on Thursday was the price action in alts on Wednesday,” NYDIG wrote. “Unexplained significant weakness was seen in many altcoins that perhaps portended the move in the major coins, such as bitcoin.”


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