Price action ahead of the inauguration is ‘rigged for unpredictability:’ K33

K33 analysts no longer think that Donald Trump’s inauguration is a sell the news event

article-image

mr_tigga/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


Yesterday I touched on the markets, but today I want to take a deeper dive ahead of the inauguration. 

Good news is that there’s some positive data supporting the thesis that bitcoin could be in for positive momentum after Jan. 20. 

K33 analysts noted that trading volumes are up 51% this past week, with average daily volumes coming in at $4.3 billion. 

“Activity levels were exceptionally high amidst [Monday’s] massive flush and recovery, with spot market volumes reaching $6.5 billion, the highest daily spot volume since Dec. 20. The high volume and sharp recovery suggest many willing buyers amidst BTC’s push below $90,000, a promising observation for the road ahead,” they said.

Now I’m going to offer up the next bit of data without much explanation because I’m not sure we can really explain it outside of theorizing. K33 noted that Jan. 13 was the most volatile day since early December, where the gap between daily returns and intraday volatility was the “highest ever recorded in BTC.”

The easiest explanation is potential profit taking, perhaps to prepare for tax season

This leads me to this interesting nugget: “prices saw another peculiar pattern over the last week, with 14 consistent green hourly candles in a row for the first time in BTC history, making the past week unique through several lenses.”

From K33’s market report

All of this could mean that Jan. 20 isn’t a sell-the-news event after all, which was a previous possibility. 

Back in early December, K33 analyst Vetle Lunde thought we could see bitcoin peak on Jan. 17, ahead of the inauguration, which would set it up for selling pressure as President-elect Donald Trump once again takes the oath of office.

But, to no one’s surprise, bitcoin marches to the beat of its own drum and a lot of what I’ve written and talked about for the past month no longer matters. Don’t worry, I won’t take it personally. 

The current setup, K33 noted, is “rigged for unpredictability” which means we all might be in for a bumpy ride over the next few days. 

“The overall sensitivity to interest rates over the past month suggests increased importance of Wednesday’s CPI print. Additionally, notable Trump momentum may still form in the days leading into the inauguration. At current levels, we’ve rescinded our plan to sell the inauguration. However, given the plan’s price-dependent nature, a tactical de-risking could regain appeal if prices push meaningfully higher running into the inauguration,” analysts wrote.

We’re not out of the woods yet, and we should all be wary. But, hey, at least it doesn’t seem like we’re peaking yet…right?


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Unlocked by Template (7).png

Research

Union’s improvements upon Tendermint consensus through CometBLS, coupled with ZK proving through Galois, allow for a broadly scalable, cost efficient, and low latency IBC implementation that is feasibly scalable across every existing blockchain, virtual machine and runtime. The implementation offers modular crosschain interoperability without the need for trusted intermediaries.  

article-image

US crypto iOS apps can link to external NFT shops

article-image

The famed billionaire investor had harsh words for Bitcoin seven years ago

article-image

Ripple is eyeing ways to boost its financial profile, on top of social usefulness

article-image

Hal Finney joined the Bitcoin network in its first seven days

article-image

Bill Gates expects that within a decade, humans will no longer be needed “for most things”

article-image

A newly submitted SEC pilot proposal aims to tokenize US equities