Cheatsheet: Bitcoin entering a ‘danger zone?’

Crypto stocks start the week in the red

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Kartavaya Olya/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

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This is Cheatsheet, a primer on what’s happening in crypto today.

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $68,000 Monday morning, posting slight gains after falling to around $65,000 over the weekend. 

Ether (ETH) is also slightly up, trading around $3,500.

Dogwifhat is a notable gainer Monday morning, posting gains of 27% over the past 24 hours to trade around $3.09 at time of publication.

The meme-based coin’s gains were partially attributable to an auction for an NFT of the original meme, a photograph of a Shiba Inu named Achi in a knitted hat.

Read more from our opinion section: A memecoin might get the Vegas treatment, but crypto ads rarely age well

Pseudonymous crypto trader GCR won the auction with a bid of 1,210 ETH, or $4.3 million, according to NFT marketplace Foundation.

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Other gainers today include Jupiter (JUP) and Avalanche (AVAX), up 13% and 11% respectively at around 10 am ET.

Where does bitcoin go from here?

With the halving in sight — roughly a month away from Tuesday — the price calls from bitcoin are coming in hot. 

Binance CEO Richard Teng reportedly said that he thinks bitcoin could exceed $80,000 at the end of the year. While Teng had previously believed bitcoin could end the year around that figure, he noted that he’s become more and more optimistic — partially due to the January launch of bitcoin ETFs in the US and the institutional investors who then entered the market.

Read more: Solana climbs higher while bitcoin, ether prices cool

Keep in mind that some analysts — like Standard Chartered — have made calls for bitcoin to be $150,000 by the end of the year.

However, it may not be all gains, with Yield App Chief Investment Officer Lucas Kiely warning that bitcoin is entering the pre-halving “danger zone.”

“Bitcoin’s price moves over this past week are a run-through for the turbulence ahead, and a clear sign to buckle up as we enter the pre-halving ‘danger zone’. The days before the halving saw BTC nosedive as much as 40% in 2016, and 20% in 2020, and we’re just warming up for this cycle’s pre-halving price action,” Kiely said. 

He believes there could be a 20% correction on the horizon, with bitcoin floating around $60,0000.

But bitcoin’s current pullback showcases some good news. 

“If there were any surprises, it’s that the correction was a mild 12%, as compared with the 20 to 30% dips we’ve seen in the past,” Kiely said. “In part, this showcases Bitcoin’s current resilience to the macro environment. Thursday’s news that US inflation came in at double the level expected in February may have caused the weekend’s short-lived dip, but BTC entirely ignored the CPI report earlier in the week.”

Crypto business

Crypto stocks kicked off morning trading in the red, with MicroStrategy down 8% and Coinbase down roughly 2.5% at time of publication. Some bitcoin miners, including Core Scientific, Marathon and Riot, saw losses between 3% and 6%.

It’s not all bad news though, as MicroStrategy holds on to its recent triple-digit gains. The stock, up 137% in the last month alone, is on a tear in comparison to other crypto stocks.

  • Coinbase is up 32% in the same timespan.
  • Marathon is down 29%.
  • Riot is down 31%.

As Cheatsheet previously noted, MicroStrategy and Coinbase are the only crypto stocks in the green so far this month. 

Speaking of Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy is set to close its second senior notes offering Monday, after announcing the pricing of its $525 million offering on Friday. The notes, due 2031, bear an interest rate of 0.875%.

  • The man who binned his bitcoin is back, and reportedly looking to launch a legal fight to recover his lost 8,000 bitcoin (worth roughly $545 million at current prices).
  • BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC are now in the top five ETFs by year-to-date flows, sitting at third and fifth respectively, according to data from Bloomberg.

On the ground

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The early bird gets the worm…or something like that

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Fun times


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