Web3 Watch: Polymarket enters the spotlight amid turbulent week in politics

This week was a crazy one in US politics, which had all kinds of implications for crypto markets, it turns out.

Maybe the biggest winner amid all the turbulence is Polymarket, the prediction market that’s become the leading one in crypto following a $45 million Series B round led by Founders Fund in May.

According to a Dune dashboard, Polymarket has seen its usage skyrocket in recent months to over $150 million in volume in July alone. This is up from roughly $6.6 million in December 2023.

Its presidential election winner market has nearly $300 million worth of bets with more than three months to go before the election.

Newsletter

Subscribe to The Breakdown

Crypto news outlets have frequently cited prediction markets like Polymarket in the past for things like political outcomes, sometimes perhaps a bit hastily given the lack of liquidity on the platforms. Now prediction markets, led by Polymarket, are gaining a place as a relevant source for truth-seeking.

Polymarket odds are increasingly being cited in mainstream media. Then this week, the prediction market hired pop statistician Nate Silver, popular for his election forecasting exploits.

Notably, Polymarket isn’t the only crypto outfit cashing in on the intrigue of US politics. There are, of course, the memecoins. And the crypto exchange Deribit introduced a call option for Nov. 8, so investors can bet on the price of crypto assets following the US elections.

Polymarket feeds on a popular outlook in crypto that markets can create more efficient truth-seeking. Vitalik Buterin has written tangentially on the subject, and MetaDAO has made waves for markets-based governance.

TON tries capitalizing on recent growth

TON, the Telegram-related blockchain that’s gotten a boost from the popularity of tap-to-earn games within the messaging app, is looking to capitalize on the hype.

The blockchain announced it would be building a bitcoin bridge into and out of the network. Then, TON-related “venture builder” TOP announced an investment in the Telegram “game arcade,” Akedo.

Crypto game developer Delabs also released a Telegram game, called GIGA CHAD BAT.

TON’s total value locked (TVL) has swelled to over $750 million, making it the eleventh-largest blockchain by that metric, according to DeFiLlama.

One interesting stat:

Blur still reigns supreme in NFT marketplace volume, accounting for 63% of the total in the past week, according to a hildobby Dune dashboard. But OpenSea wins on the number of trades, seeing 45.9% to Blur’s 39.6%.