As Crypto Rallies on Strong Jobs Data, Analysts Speculate on Powell’s Next Move

The Fed has kept an eye on labor statistics in recent months with the hopes of gauging the odds of a recession


key takeaways

  • July’s jobs data crushed expectations
  • Additional 75 basis point hikes, or more, are likely to come, analysts said

Jobs data released Friday showed strong growth in the workforce and a decline in unemployment, suggesting a Federal Reserve policy pivot may not come in September. 

The US economy added 528,000 jobs in July, more than doubling analysts’ expectations, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate also marginally dipped from 3.6% to 3.5% last month. 

The Fed has kept an eye on labor statistics in recent months with the hope of gauging the odds of a recession. Strong jobs data will likely validate Fed Chair Powell’s recent rate-hiking moves, analysts said. 

“Numbers this strong push back strongly against the idea that we’re close to peak inflation or peak hawkishness,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a note Friday. “The looming CPI report could keep any market fallout from being too intense (as hope for a soft CPI should support assets) but we’d still expect moderate declines.”

Stocks traded sideways Friday, while cryptocurrencies extended recent gains. The S&P 500 was trading down 0.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost about 1% Friday late in the trading session. Bitcoin and ether gained 0.8% and 4.2%, respectively. 

Friday’s jobs data comes a day after asset manager BlackRock said it would begin facilitating institutional cryptocurrency trading through Coinbase’s prime brokerage service. The exchange’s stock rallied more than 30% Thursday before paring gains. 

“There was, what has become, a rare good news headline for bitcoin on Thursday after Coinbase was chosen to provide crypto services to Blackrock’s clients,” Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at OANDA, wrote Friday. “This is a big show of support for an asset class that’s had a frankly terrible year so far. But clearly, there remains strong demand for cryptos which bodes well for the future.”

It is hard to say how long the turnaround for COIN and the broader crypto market will last, analysts agreed, but on the whole, it shows the industry moving in a positive direction. 

“While small and retail investors have been virtually shaken out of the space over the past few months, institutions are now making a comeback,” said Mikkel Mørch, executive director at digital asset investment fund ARK36. “Evidently, big players like BlackRock see neither the recent slump in prices nor the waves of bankruptcies among crypto companies as evidence that it’s over for cryptocurrencies or that there is something fundamentally wrong with this asset class.”

Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.

Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the On the Margin newsletter.

The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.


Upcoming Events

Salt Lake City, UT

MON - TUES, OCT. 7 - 8, 2023

Blockworks and Bankless in collaboration with buidlbox are excited to announce the second installment of the Permissionless Hackathon – taking place October 7-8 in Salt Lake City, Utah. We’ve partnered with buidlbox to bring together the brightest minds in crypto for […]

Salt Lake City, UT

WED - FRI, OCTOBER 9 - 11, 2024

Pack your bags, anon — we’re heading west! Join us in the beautiful Salt Lake City for the third installment of Permissionless. Come for the alpha, stay for the fresh air. Permissionless III promises unforgettable panels, killer networking opportunities, and mountains […]

recent research

Unlocked by Template.png


With the spot ETH ETF approval, the institutions are coming. stETH - given its dominance in marketshare, existing liquid market structures, and highly desirable properties - is poised for institutions.


The QT taper begins this month…but what does that mean for markets?


Plus, the rise of RWAs could bring about a significant shift in how real-world investments are managed and accessed


The distributed cell plan provider started selling its own hotspots in October 2023


The Brazil-based asset manager’s filing comes during a year of milestone bitcoin and ether fund approvals


The purchase of five sites in Georgia set to help CleanSpark hit its mid-year operating hash rate target of 20 EH/s


Plus, it’s beginning to look like we may be in for a cruel summer