Bitcoin holders are still only just breaking even

On-chain data suggests bitcoin holders aren’t currently able to book a profit amidst hype around spot ETF filings

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Mia Stendal/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

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The price of bitcoin (BTC) has almost doubled this year, but on-chain metrics hint that holders overall aren’t currently in profit.

Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) attempts to gauge whether bitcoins are worth more now than when they were last moved. 

The idea is that BTC was bought when their latest UTXO was created. So, comparing current bitcoin prices to that point in time will show if the holder is in profit.

(“Holders,” in this case, refers only to addresses with BTC balances. SOPR doesn’t include bitcoin positions held on centralized exchanges, as it only studies on-chain movements.)

An SOPR reading of more than one signifies on-chain bitcoin holders are in profit, one means breakeven, while less than one indicates they’re in the red. That figure sat at a 1.00275782 on Wednesday, per CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin’s SOPR was higher on July 1, reaching 1.01. Bitcoin had jumped nearly 15% over about a week on the back of buzz surrounding BlackRock’s spot ETF filing, first submitted in mid-June

Bitcoin is up almost 3% over the past day, having reclaimed $31,000. On May 7, Bitcoin’s SOPR hit its highest point since December 2020 — almost 1.073 — when BTC traded for about $28,500.

Bitcoin’s SOPR is, understandably, as volatile as its price

Bitcoin holders eye institutional interest

Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that although the pace of rate hikes should slow, there may still be increases in the near future. Crypto prices initially sank in response.

Regulatory scrutiny has diminished the appeal of crypto for some participants from traditional finance, according to Youwei Yang, chief economist at publicly-listed firm Bit Mining.

“The narrative of a US Bitcoin Spot ETF has sparked hope for broader institutional adoption, although the extent of institutional buying remains uncertain,” Yang told Blockworks.

Still, Yang reasoned that crypto-native investors don’t particularly care about macroeconomic developments including CPI, Fed interest rates, jobless claims and geopolitical concerns that major stock indices are usually traded upon.


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