Bitcoin on recovery path while stocks decline on jobs data, Fed minutes 

Bitcoin was trading 1.5% higher over the past 24 hours Thursday morning, rebounding from the decline that saw the cryptocurrency drop as much as 8% Wednesday

article-image

Artwork by Crystal Le

share

Bitcoin recovered losses from earlier in the week while stocks struggled to maintain their fourth quarter momentum. Analysts say uncertainty from the Federal Reserve on the pace of rate cuts in 2024 and optimism about the timeline for approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund are to blame. 

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 1.5% higher over the past 24 hours Thursday morning, rebounding from the decline that saw the cryptocurrency drop as much as 8% Wednesday. Ether (ETH) was also back in the green, gaining about 2% Thursday. 

The Nasdaq Composite headed for its fifth straight day of losses Thursday at the start of the trading session while the S&P 500 traded sideways. The Nasdaq Composite is now down 2.3% since the start of the year and the S&P 500 has lost 0.8%. 

Read more: Bitcoin falls 8% on anti-ETF news, analysts remain confident 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is fairing slighting better, gaining 0.3% Thursday morning and positioning it flat since the first trading day of 2024. 

It’s hardly the January effect investors have been hoping for. Analysts attribute the decline to hesitation from the Fed about how many rate cuts might come in 2024 and when they could start, as demonstrated by the December Federal Open Market Committee minutes released Wednesday. 

Committee members signaled that three cuts could happen this year, but they remain uncertain and will determine next steps based “on how the economy evolves,” the minutes read. Fed Funds Futures still call for six 25 basis point cuts in 2024 starting in March, according to data from CME Group. 

Wednesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) results also gave traders pause. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers remained at 1.4x in November versus the average of 0.7x since December 2000, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

“The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers is almost back to the immediately pre-pandemic ratio, but it is still high (statistically speaking) relative to history,” Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said. 

“JOLTS data may give [Fed Chair Jerome Powell] and the FOMC some pause when considering the absolute number of potential rate cuts this year,” Rabe added. “As much as the US labor market continues to cool, labor demand still far exceeds the supply of available workers.”

ETF speculation continues to move bitcoin 

Bitcoin’s Wednesday decline coincided with a report from financial services firm Matrixport which questioned the likelihood of an ETF getting the green light this month. Matrixport analysts said the US Securities and Exchange Commission decision makers, which are “dominated by Democrats,” would not vote in favor of a spot bitcoin product. 

“My report is not based on issuer, nor on SEC insider comments,” Matrixport head of research Markus Thielen wrote on X Wednesday. “Obviously this is massively out of consensus.”

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart are still calling for a 90% likelihood of the SEC approving spot bitcoin ETFs before Jan. 10.

A denial at this point would “overturn a lot of reporting, a lot of effort, a lot of work and a lot of signaling from the staff,” Balchunas added.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

🚀 Build What’s Next — Permissionless IV Hackathon Join us June 22–23 in Brooklyn for the Permissionless IV Hackathon — a 36-hour sprint hosted by Cracked Labs and Blockworks where top builders turn ideas into real products. Come to launch, not just […]

recent research

Research Report Templates (10).png

Research

Kamino has evolved into a full-stack asset scaling suite with V2: unlocking new markets, improving capital efficiency, and catering to various risk profiles. We believe it is best positioned to become the credit backbone of Solana as the ecosystem matures. Simply put, KMNO remains our highest-conviction bet in the Solana ecosystem. This report lays out our thesis.

article-image

Greenwood was a success story before it was a tragedy

article-image

All eight included staking in their most recent SEC filings

article-image

With an updated Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed sees growth slowing and inflation increasing

article-image

Where do crypto mobile games go from here?

article-image

Bybit’s Byreal, Binance Alpha and Coinbase’s DEX integrations

article-image

This isn’t the worst hack to ever hit Mt. Gox, but it could be the most entertaining