After bitcoin ETF approval, analysts remain divided on ETH ETF timetable

While some analysts think there could be an ether ETF decision in just a few months, others warn we may be years away

article-image

Artwork by Crystal Le

share

When will spot ether ETFs launch?

With spot bitcoin ETF approvals behind crypto, many are turning to what they believe is next: ether ETFs. The Securities and Exchange Commission recently delayed decisions on the handful of spot ether ETF applicants, which include Fidelity and BlackRock. 

However, experts aren’t aligned on when a spot ether ETF could hit the market. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart told Blockworks last week that he believes there’s a 60% chance that the SEC will opt to approve the potential ETFs in May.

TD Cowen expects a much longer path to an ether ETF and they don’t expect approval in 2024. 

Read more: BlackRock spot ether ETF decision delayed by SEC

“We still believe that action is unlikely until late 2025 or early 2026 as we believe SEC Chair Gensler wants to apply what is learned from the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs to spot Ethereum ETFs,” analysts led by Jaret Seiberg said in a note. 

The decision to approve or deny the ETFs is political, TD Cowen continued. 

“We believe there is no upside for SEC Chair Gary Gensler to approve a spot Ethereum ETF given how upset progressive Democrats were over the agency’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month,” they wrote.

Standard Chartered, however, believes that ether ETFs could begin trading sooner rather than later. 

“Approvals are likely on 23 May,” analysts wrote. “We think the SEC’s dominant strategy for ETH ETF applications is to replicate the BTC process. This partly reflects structural similarities between the two.”

The path to a bitcoin ETF took several years — and some refilings from interested issuers — as well as a court battle, before the SEC voted 3-2 to approve them. 

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce previously said that the agency doesn’t plan to face another court case before approving a product such as ether ETFs.

She also noted that the SEC will “apply precedent,” though she offered no timeline.

TD Cowen said that they do believe the SEC will approve a spot ether ETF, most likely under Chair Gary Gensler.

Standard Chartered, however, believes it’s “highly likely” the agency will follow in the same footsteps as the bitcoin ETFs. 

The Standard Chartered note lines up with Seyffart’s beliefs. 

“So if the SEC wants to get geared up and ready to go and wants [the potential ETF issuers] to go at the same time, they’ll likely do it on May 23 unless they can figure out some way to deny or delay this whole process and do what they want,” he told Blockworks.

Van Buren Capital general partner Scott Johnsson also believes that, long-term, ether ETF approval “is almost guaranteed.”

But the SEC may need more time to “get up to speed with Ethereum versus Bitcoin,” he said in a post on X last week.


Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.

Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the On the Margin newsletter.

The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

Tags

Upcoming Events

Salt Lake City, UT

MON - TUES, OCT. 7 - 8, 2024

Blockworks and Bankless in collaboration with buidlbox are excited to announce the second installment of the Permissionless Hackathon – taking place October 7-8 in Salt Lake City, Utah. We’ve partnered with buidlbox to bring together the brightest minds in crypto for […]

Salt Lake City, UT

WED - FRI, OCTOBER 9 - 11, 2024

Pack your bags, anon — we’re heading west! Join us in the beautiful Salt Lake City for the third installment of Permissionless. Come for the alpha, stay for the fresh air. Permissionless III promises unforgettable panels, killer networking opportunities, and mountains […]

recent research

Research Report Templates.png

Research

ZKPs enable efficient offchain transaction processing and validation, resulting in increased throughput and reduced fees. Solana's ZK Compression leverages ZKPs to minimize onchain storage costs, while Sui's zkLogin streamlines user onboarding by replacing complex key management with familiar OAuth credentials.

article-image

The crypto asset manager lowered its planned fee from 0.25% to 0.15%, undercutting its competitors

article-image

Plus, a look at planned ETH ETF fees and how they differ from their BTC counterparts

article-image

North Korea suspected in breach of Indian exchange’s multisig wallet

article-image

Plus, Sanctum’s CLOUD token has officially launched — but not without problems

article-image

It’s not yet clear whether Donald Trump is pumping bitcoin. But an unofficial memecoin is still seeing benefit.