Cheatsheet: Can bitcoin maintain its momentum into the halving?

The halving is expected around April 20 and with share drops already upon us, can bitcoin maintain its momentum for roughly a month?

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Artwork by Crystal Le

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This is Cheatsheet, a primer on what’s happening in crypto today.

Bitcoin’s back at $66,000 after slowly climbing higher throughout Wednesday, a 5% uptick in the last 24 hours.

Ether (ETH) is trading around $3,500, following a similar trajectory. 

Floki is topping the charts this morning, up 26%. Axelar’s AXL and Kaspa’s KAS followed closely behind at 19% and 18%, respectively, at time of publication.

Render RNDR, Bittensor TAO and First Digital USD FDUSD all saw slight selling pressure between 2.4% and 1.1% early Thursday.

The halving’s nearly upon us

The fourth bitcoin halving is almost upon us, set to occur on or around April 20. 

Read more: The Bitcoin halving is about a month away — here’s what you can expect

In a note to institutional investors, Coinbase Institutional wrote, “given prior history, it would be easy to extrapolate that bitcoin’s strong recent performance (up 157% since mid-October) will continue up to and after the upcoming halving.”

However, analysts warned, investors should proceed with caution. 

As Cheatsheet’s been reporting throughout the week, thoughts on bitcoin’s price action ahead of the halving are a mixed bag. Some market commentators believe bitcoin’s entered a “danger zone” in the next month. Earlier this week, bitcoin (BTC) dropped 17% from its all-time high before regaining ground.

“Looking ahead, there are a number of macro factors that are likely to have a meaningful impact on bitcoin prices as well,” analysts wrote, citing the Federal Reserve and miners.

Crypto business

Coinbase sent a letter earlier this month to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission submitting a self-certification to list dogecoin, litecoin and bitcoin cash futures starting April 1. 

“Dogecoin’s enduring popularity and the active community support suggest that it has transcended its origins as a meme to become a staple of the cryptocurrency world,” Coinbase wrote in its letter about dogecoin.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart questioned on X if the Securities and Exchange Commission would take issue with the classification as “commodities futures” versus “securities futures.”

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Zooming out of cryptoland, Reddit is officially going public Thursday. 

Read more: Reddit eyes late March debut on NYSE: FT

According to a press release, the company priced at the top of its range at $34 a share. Back when the company publicly filed its S-1, it disclosed that it held bitcoin, ether and Polygon’s native token, MATIC. However, it specified that it held ether and bitcoin “for treasury purposes” and had also invested “excess cash reserves” to add to its bitcoin and ether holdings.

Elsewhere in the market:

  • Grayscale’s bitcoin ETF is still taking a beating when it comes to outflows, with nearly $387 million of outflows Wednesday.
  • For the third day in a row, bitcoin ETFs saw outflows across the board, with IBIT notching a mere $49 million in inflows.
  • MicroStrategy, in early Thursday trading, is seeing some positive momentum. Stock is up nearly 4% at time of publication to $1,600 a share.

On the ground

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